Alex @[email protected]

Wednesday morning #headlines recap

Everyone knows Ratcliffe went to Moscow, but the purpose is contested. WSJ framing: Ratcliffe went to talk Putin out of declaring mobilization, with NATO intel picking up signals of limited incursions to "test NATO's resolve." Other theories include begging Moscow to lean on Tehran over Hormuz. Putin signed three classified decrees afterwards and cancelled an event to take the meeting, per Moscow Times. Noteworthy that Washington asked Kiev to halt strikes on Moscow and St Petersburg for three days (24-26 August) so the plane could land, and Kiev agreed. It’s a dartboard of ideas frens, take your best shot in the comments. My take: there’s a hotline between Washington and Moscow, why not just use that?

Trump posted that "all mines have been removed and/or detonated" from international waters in the strait, with a “zero tolerance policy" on new placement. Oil promptly fell. This story grows even more farcical based on the fact that the US Navy hasn't been inside the strait or the Persian Gulf since late February… so whoever cleared mines, it wasn't the US. I’m sure he signaled his (((buddies))) before putting out another market-manipulating lie.

According to AIS tracking, at least three tankers attempted the southern corridor under USAF escort, at least one was struck by the IRGC, while the ships and Portugal Prosperity and Zixuan got through. Ships on both sides are running dark.

Iraqi crude exports are up because Iranian barrels are being blended in and shuttled via the prosperity tankers - which is why none of them get targeted in the Oman lane.

Panama Canal access auctioned at a record $5.3 million to SK Gas for a 1 September slot, up from $4.6M earlier this month, with 11-day waits for unreserved vessels. Rerouting is now a priced commodity. The ripple effect of this needless jew war is staggering.

Iran sanctions: "Economic D-Day" reverses in a day, due in no small part to the fact that neither Beijing nor Moscow is agreeing to it. As one analyst correctly described it: no support for sanctions, panic, beg for a deal, threaten strikes, repeat. Honestly, it feels like Bessent and Trump are actually trying to make themselves look as impotent as possible.

Cost of the war so far, per WSJ reporting: ~3,000 Iranians and 18 US service members dead, 756 US wounded, drained reserves, depleted munitions, and the strait running at a fifth of prewar traffic. Gabbard reportedly warned in the Oval Office that killing the supreme leader would produce a harder regime, that Tehran would close Hormuz, and that US forces would be struck. All three landed.

Inside Iran, the blockade is biting: hyperinflation and gas shortages abound. Tehran's read: midterms are ten weeks out, the clock favors Iran, and the appointment of Rezaei to chair the SNSC signals a harder line. Meanwhile the US is preparing to return diplomats to ten regional embassies per NYT - which reads less like escalation and more like an exit ramp being paved.

Treasuries buyback delivers 25% of its own forecast. Druckenmiller wrote an op-ed for WSJ calling the intervention a "mistake”, arguing rising borrowing costs reflect inflation, deficits and $40 trillion of debt, and that suppressing the long yield only delays reform. Two interesting notes about Druckenmiller: first he was Bessent's boss 1991-2000 and 2011-2015 and Warsh's from 2011 to 2026; second, he later confessed his WSJ op-ed was written by AI. One should just assume AI-authorship of anything and everything at this point.

Fourteen OpenAI leadership departures have taken place since January - data centers, CRO, COO, CCO, robotics, CMO, science, Sora, enterprise CTO, AGI deployment, preparedness, chief futurist, safety, and the only ethicist. Head of Data Centers Chris Malone confirmed gone per WSJ. As one analyst noted, people with that much upside don't leave a ship that floats.

FT data shows frontier models are a minority of actual spend, most of it lands on the tier where Chinese open-source models are competitive and cheaper. A capabilities overhang makes each incremental training run harder to justify commercially.

A Russian DRG infiltrated at least 10km from Kostyantynivka into Druzhkivka and killed 3-4 Ukrainian drone operators - unarmed at their positions, throats cut, shot on the spot. The crews had just redeployed there from Oleksijevo-Druzhkivka to escape KAB strikes; the Russian group appears to have watched the withdrawal and followed. They changed into civilian clothes and may still be inside the city. As one observer noted, this is what happens when a line is held by drones instead of infantry. The situation was corroborated from the Ukrainian side by quoting a Telegram panic post ("got 12 km into our rear and slaughtered all the pilots”).

An observer says Dobropillia is “by far the worst sector for Ukraine right now" - a developing tactical collapse, infiltrators through 90-100% of the town, Russians pre-building northeastern and southern flanks in case counterattacks succeed. The framing of the stakes: losing Dobropillia gets Russia behind the New Donbass defensive line.

Meanwhile mobilization is fraying at home. Reports indicate a crowd in Ternopil stopping a recruiters' car, beating them and freeing the man they'd taken, with riot police dispersing the crowd. Moar of this pls.

Hundreds missing and many feared dead after massive flash flood hits Nepal-China border. The video clips are apocalyptic.

Guy gets banned from twitter, appeals, and gets denied; then he submitted the appeal in Hindu and his account was restored.

Belarusian President says "the most corrupt people in the world are jews. They steal and engage in corruption as they please." inb4 this guy didn’t kill himself…

Remember frens, as we go forward we’ll have to use all of the resources available to us…

Real africans are mocking American blacks. 😂

published on facebook today

Monday morning #headlines recap

Bessent announces "economic D-Day" begins at dawn; presser today 1 PM ET. His own words: "the single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against an adversary", objective to "sever every economic lifeline”. Iran’s response: "if the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exported, neither through the Strait of Hormuz nor from anywhere in the Persian Gulf", and participation in sanctions will be read as an act of war. Analysts are saying that China’s refusal to participate will neutralize the entire initiative regardless of what other nations do. Didn’t think it was possible for Bessent to be moar ghey, but here we are.

Axios continues to be the house organ for floating bogus stories to bump the market. Their latest bit of propaganda over the weekend exclaims Hormuz traffic is up 400% and “Iran is losing its grip”, but the actual data says crossings still in the single digits and 90% below pre-February 28 numbers.

Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf, on the US bond market: "Importing frozen meat to fix meat prices. Okay, that might work. What's the plan for bonds, import frozen yields?" He does a little shitpoasting of his own…

Four more empty Saudi tankers (AMAD, AMJAD, SHADEN, DALIL) left the Gulf of Oman for Red Sea ports the long way around Africa. Bloomberg's version: Riyadh is shuttling millions of barrels north across the Red Sea while sending tankers thousands of miles around Africa to collect them, avoiding the narrow strait at the southern end. I’m sure the delay and the extra fuel for the ships won’t be reflected in the price at the pump….

US crude inventory down to 41 days, lowest in half a century; SPR at its lowest since 1982. Buffalo Airport runs out of jet fuel. It’s not obvious if the Buffalo incident is incompetence at the field or truly a reflection of a shit-hitting-the-fan situation.

IMF read on the fuel situation: current prices don't reflect the Middle East and Russian supply shock, SPR depletion continues into 2027, refinery outages are hitting diesel, Russia has banned fuel exports to Europe, Chinese runs stay constrained, US refiners head into maintenance, and crack spreads at records. I’ve defined crack spreads before, it’s an economic measure of barrel of oil price vs. price at the pump. I feel the need to reiterate this because of the ridiculous number of assmen on fedi.

US casualties in the Iran war reported at 774 - 18 killed, 756 wounded - per Pentagon data via WaPo. Let us hope they were largely composed of browns and sexual deviants.

Editor’s note: Russia continues to pound Ukraine via air and on the ground. The only notable story is new UK Prime Minister Burnham going to Kiev to give Zelenskyyyy a reacharound.

South Korean stocks getting dumped in the Sunday session, with an author who was previously bullish KOSPI now walking it back. Sounds like someone got Cramer’d…

“Happy Merchant” creator and political cartoonist Nick Bougas passed away over the weekend. He was 71. Clearly demonstrated the power of the meme, pressing F to pay respects.

Be sure to commemorate “Economic D Day” by poasting as many dank memes as possible frens…

Man it's nice to see Gabe Newell looking healthy. Wish him the best as always, and Godspeed you absolute legend.

@Dubbub @Owl i think you grossly underestimate our capacity to be subverted.

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Beer hag

Public humiliation is the cure.