Possibly the main reason why nobody is leading an armed revolution is because there's essentially no cost to waiting, and every day of waiting the regime becomes weaker and popular support for a revolution becomes stronger.
What will probably be the trigger-point is when someone goes ahead and starts striking sparks, then everyone else is going to join in because they all want a piece of the spoils / control over how the revolution goes.
What will probably be the trigger-point is when someone goes ahead and starts striking sparks, then everyone else is going to join in because they all want a piece of the spoils / control over how the revolution goes.
Or an oligarch (Musk?)
Or a splinter group of special forces
Or (most likely) some combination of the three
It doesn't mean it's not "real", there will be real (powerful) people who lose in it, but it doesn't come from "the people" - no revolution ever does.