Here is my monkey hunch on what's going on with Wagner in Russia, just to put it on the record in case I'm right when the dust settles.
Wagner were bought off by NATO, and there was a pre-existing plan for Wagner to launch a coup against Putin when Russia was on the backfoot.
However, with the counteroffensive failed, but the US unwilling to take the "L" on anything, they activated the Wagner coup in desperation.
They have another coup planned for Belarus if you think this is farfetched