@Terry @Tfmonkey I wonder if China is behind Iran not interfering. Of course this one transit is just a demonstration, and it isn't sustainable, but they might be under Chinese orders not to attack US warships unless the US attacks them.
Part of me thinks that both Russia and Iran are having to pull their punches to placate the Chinese, though that is all behind closed doors.
@Tfmonkey @Terry very good point. Unless the US starts moving 50+ ships per day through the Strait, the SPR will continue to be drained, regardless of shows of force. Iran can just encourage ships to use their route by hitting ships that aren't escorted and sidestep the need for direct confrontation entirely.
Time is definitely working against the US here. To stop draining the SPR they need probably 80+ ships/day going through.
@fmanly @Terry Iran can "run out the clock" until the SPR runs out in a few months, so they don't need to escalate to win.
Still, if I were them I would bomb the shit out of Israel until they left Lebanon and bomb the shit out of the US regional assets until they give me my money.
If they want to drag their feet and stall, Tel Aviv will pay the price.