The first step to predict the future, is to understand who's in charge. Thinking logically and understanding economics is necessary, but ultimately useless if you fail to recognize the global hierarchy.

If you thought the "Cathedral" was the US and wanted to keep the empire alive, then you probably lost a lot of money and failed to predict their moves.
If however, you understood they follow religion more than logic and want the US to commit suicide, then you saw this coming from a mile away.