So if anything about a potential false flag in Lithuania is true it would confirm my thoughts on the GAE wanting to drag Poland, and the rest of the bordering eastern euro states into a war with Russia via Kaliningrad. In my mind Ukraine wouldn't be the sparks of anything larger. Instead it'd be Russia's island in Europe.
Obviously this implicates all of NATO which by extension includes the US. However, I think ground forces would be Eastern European and a carrier fleet would see the black sea.