So if anything about a potential false flag in Lithuania is true it would confirm my thoughts on the GAE wanting to drag Poland, and the rest of the bordering eastern euro states into a war with Russia via Kaliningrad. In my mind Ukraine wouldn't be the sparks of anything larger. Instead it'd be Russia's island in Europe.
Bordering both Poland and Lithuania. It would be the perfect sparking location for the GAE. It is pretty much NATO territory (Similar to Nord Stream), and is a relatively busy land based shipping lane for plausible deniability. They can pull some shit about how Russia was going to handle Poland and any threats made to Lithuania over the shipping access to Kaliningrad. This (IF TRUE) has Nord Stream vibes written all over it. Especially since NATO 'exercises' will be going on.
Obviously this implicates all of NATO which by extension includes the US. However, I think ground forces would be Eastern European and a carrier fleet would see the black sea.