@Stahesh

Meanwhile, UBS expects the unemployment rate to rise more than a full percentage point from current levels to 5.0% at the end of next year.

Business insider

https://web.archive.org/web/20231113180717/https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-forecast-2024-full-accommodation-economic-contraction-unemployment-2023-11

when the FOMC raised fed fund rates to more than 19% in 1981 to combat inflation, it triggered a severe 16-month recession. Subsequently, that launched a nearly two-year bear market for stocks and sent unemployment up to 10.8%.

USA Today

https://web.archive.org/web/20231106225234/https://www.usatoday.com/money/blueprint/investing/economic-outlook-2024/

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