I do not think Russia and Iran are going to attack because some diplomat or politician that is not the ayatollah or guy who would direct the war gets killed. It is not a good look, but it isn't like they're face tanking tons of shit to their cabinets or necessary infrastructure. It is my beleive that they want the US & Israel committed in a war against Hezbollah. Iran is not a proxy and has internal factions that would devolve into civil war if their critical infrastructure went to shit.
I believe they have an internal timeline they are holding to nearing the fall. Russia isn't going to do shit in Ukraine then and through the winter so their plan may be to move in the summer, consolidate lines, then move assets into Syria. I do think they are all afraid because truely as ia said the worst thing you can do is lose a war. They know the US wants them to stretch their neck out so they can get a decisive victory.
