I do not think Russia and Iran are going to attack because some diplomat or politician that is not the ayatollah or guy who would direct the war gets killed. It is not a good look, but it isn't like they're face tanking tons of shit to their cabinets or necessary infrastructure. It is my beleive that they want the US & Israel committed in a war against Hezbollah. Iran is not a proxy and has internal factions that would devolve into civil war if their critical infrastructure went to shit.
Perhaps they understand too their militaries are not as capable as we are lead to believe. The physical fronts won't be in Iran, but perhaps Iran does not have the AA assets to brunt the assets the US is willing to consentrate at it. Either way they ought to strike first, but nobody wants to put the neck out without the GAE being occupied within the area. Gaza isn't enough to truly occupy the regime. I'll begin Kvetching if they let Lebanon straight be invaded fully like Gaza and do nothing.
I think they have Russia mop up whatever's going on in Ukraine, they sign their accord, and then they get a bigger dick. Russia should extend the nuclear umbrella I agree, but I do think they woudl rather be able to swing the conventional sword first to prevent nukes flying. The east has long been less competent than the White Man's brain so TFM may be thinking a lot more efficiently compared to their very slow crawling approach to these world ordeals. I'll invoke the eternal "We'll See."
@FinalDresdonation Exactly,they want to cause chaos with Markists in Iran,Mujahedeen-e-Khalq, (MEK) Us has backed this group of Markist Iranian Muslims and used them against Iran from every administration since Reagan
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/nov/09/mek-iran-revolution-regime-trump-rajavi
@Scubbie This is in part why I think they are slow and careful. Just like hyperinflation making people homeless and destitute war can produce the same conditions. Iran isn't some monolith demographically/ideologically. They have a lot of internal stuff that can pop off. This is why I am convinced they are waiting on Hezbollah to take the first blows and for Russia to move more assets into Syria.
I believe they have an internal timeline they are holding to nearing the fall. Russia isn't going to do shit in Ukraine then and through the winter so their plan may be to move in the summer, consolidate lines, then move assets into Syria. I do think they are all afraid because truely as ia said the worst thing you can do is lose a war. They know the US wants them to stretch their neck out so they can get a decisive victory.