Academic Agent's guide to analyzing US politics
1. The opinion of the public doesn't matter, the outcome is decided by the relative strength of the power factions. The organized minority always beats the disorganized masses.
2. Ignore all polls, Polls are designed to influence public opinion not to reflect public opinion.
3. Focus on the signal, not the noise. That's all pundits (except me). Read the news headlines of the top megaphones of the establishment media. Listen to the statements of the top players - big corporate CEOs and hedge fund billionaires in particular.
4. The regime always telegraphs its moves, they tell you what they plan to do. They say what they are going to do, then they do it. This helps them coordinate their swarm and it maintains stability.
5. The regime never plays 4D chess. If the regime telegraphs something they're not tricking you, if they signal one way that's how they plan for it to go. If it doesn't go that way - Trump's 2016 win - it's because they lost control.