@Tfmonkey @Terry very good point. Unless the US starts moving 50+ ships per day through the Strait, the SPR will continue to be drained, regardless of shows of force. Iran can just encourage ships to use their route by hitting ships that aren't escorted and sidestep the need for direct confrontation entirely.
Time is definitely working against the US here. To stop draining the SPR they need probably 80+ ships/day going through.
@Terry @Tfmonkey I wonder if China is behind Iran not interfering. Of course this one transit is just a demonstration, and it isn't sustainable, but they might be under Chinese orders not to attack US warships unless the US attacks them.
Part of me thinks that both Russia and Iran are having to pull their punches to placate the Chinese, though that is all behind closed doors.
@DireGoy the houthis also aren't shooting back.
Those really big bunker busters tend to be gravity bombs so they have to be dropped from above the target.
I'm sure B-2s can penetrate Iranian air defenses better than most aircraft, but I doubt they can just fly over underground facilities deep in Iran. They'll just fly as close as they can (maybe a few hundred miles away), and launch cruise missiles or ALBMs. Those have way less penetrating power.
People will destroy heaven to create hell simply because heaven was created by someone other than them, and the heaven they live in makes them feel inferior.
@obihahn it's ok. The UK is funding a few ~100k GBP grants to feed insects to African children and see what happens.
@Tohsaka saw that. Hardly a revolutionary idea. Natural gas burns cleaner, though from a CO2 standpoint I'm guessing they're about the same. What they really need to is go nuclear, but heaven forbid we listen to the science.
@wiidman Yup, refining capacity in the US is a huge issue. A major refiner just had a pump failure yesterday which I suspect could send gasoline prices higher.
I just don't see it reducing oil prices much. Oil is a global commodity unlike natural gas.
@wiidman the symbolism is amusing, but unless they're armed (with small arms) and willing to shoot the police/army, and take heavy casualties, then a tank isn't much different from a big tractor. They'll just escort you away from it on foot, then tow it off. If you don't open the hatch they'll just blow it off. Even armed tanks are pretty defenseless alone without infantry support.
@wiidman well, it worked so well for Venezuela I guess...
@wiidman @Tfmonkey I very much doubt that. I'm sure prices will go back up, but it can take a while for inventories to draw down and the fundamentals to do their thing.
@Tfmonkey there is still quite a bit of inventory out there, but it keeps falling. The lower prices go, the faster it will fall, and the slower production will ramp up.
If people actually USE less oil that will impact the long-term price. Stuff like this might drive short-term sentiment, but there is only so much slack in the market before it rebounds, IMO.
