@Tfmonkey Meanwhile US exports of oil are at record levels. From last weeks BoA midstream report.
SK also had the good old "higher than expected" CPI print (highest in 23 years).
@Tfmonkey I'm such a boomer I can barely figure out how this site works.
How many times is Ed Morse going to call for $70 dollar oil? He did the same shit when he fucked over investors with Saudi Aramco when he was entrusted to give a valuation of assets. 2.9 -> 0.5 billion, whoops.
@Tfmonkey what's that old saying, never let a good crisis go UN-profitied
@VooDooMedic It's not a crisis. The 2nd quarter closed and we're officially in a recession, but those reports are backwards-looking so we've BEEN in a recession for months.
We've also been in the middle of an energy crisis for months, so in what world does "OMG RECESSION" mean oil is going to crash when all that's changes is that the calendar moved from June to July?
@Tfmonkey do you think that it is just the cathedral trying to "keep the animals calm" before they absolutely slaughter everyone who resists and use them as an example ?
@VooDooMedic No, it's worse than that, it's just normies going into cash because the quarter is closed so we're "officially" in a recession now.
They're going to sit in cash until the FED goes back to printing money I guess.
@Tfmonkey how much more pain do you think they should be able to take... If you had to guess do you think that we will make it to next year ?
@VooDooMedic They're operating under two false narratives.
1. inflation is transitory and will go away on its own of through tiny rate hikes of fractions of a percent.
2. The recession is a repeat of 2008, and the FED is going to "pivot" and lower rates/stimulate the economy once inflation is "tamed" by said fractional rate hikes.
@Tfmonkey with oil dropping below 100$ do you think it's a possibility now or is it just more normie panic
@VooDooMedic 100% normie panic. They think that a recession means inflation is over and the FED will go back to QE and 0% rates by September.
@Tfmonkey does that mean that it's still time to buy or has the fair price changed? also AHHH I'M OUT OF MONEY STOP GOING DOWN I CAN'T BUY ANYMORE
@VooDooMedic The fundamentals haven't changed, but commodities will likely go lower as we approach the CPI and FOMC
CPI high? ZOMG the FED is going to raise rates! Sell everything and run to cash.
SPI low? YAY inflation is over! Sell commodities and buy tech and crypto!
@Tfmonkey what is the CPI ? i don't quite understand what that refers to, sorry if it's a dumb question
@VooDooMedic CPI = Consumer Price Index. It's a monthly inflation report.
@Tfmonkey what date does that get released and is every month the same date?
@VooDooMedic it changes every month and sometimes skips a month, so look it up.
@Tfmonkey there is still quite a bit of inventory out there, but it keeps falling. The lower prices go, the faster it will fall, and the slower production will ramp up.
If people actually USE less oil that will impact the long-term price. Stuff like this might drive short-term sentiment, but there is only so much slack in the market before it rebounds, IMO.