houseoftolstoy @[email protected]

One of the keys to building models is coming out with actionable predictions. Human beings are mastery rationalizers, so it's very easy to come up with a model to justify any course of action, but the important question is: when you take that course of action you've justified, did things play out the way that your model predicts?

Of course, there are Black swan events that no one could predict. There is no model that would have predicted that in 2020 the entire world economy would be shut down due to a pandemic. On the other hand, a model should account for some level of unexpected events, because the world isn't static.

It is no great miracle producing a set of predictions that tomorrow will be largely the same as today. Most of the time such a model will be absolutely correct. The value comes in trying to predict what might change, in figuring out what the next Black swan event could be, or in trying to see with unbiased eyes the White swan event that is sitting right in front of you.

Human beings have the tremendously huge brains we do in part so that we can try to predict the future. That is our superpower as a species. That's why our tool use is on a completely different level than any other species, because we can imagine how we might use some incredibly complicated tool that has no present use. It also allows us to behave in ways that are insanely social. For example, one person building a piece of software that allows different social media websites to connect together. They did that imagining a future that could have thousands of different websites existing and communicating. And today we have the fediverse. It also allows us to plan ahead at a level that no other creature even comes close to. How many other species do you think have 5-year plans? How many other species do you think have 10-year plans? How many species do you think have any conception of 15 or 20 years from now? That's incredible, and it's a superpower that we have as humans.

The thing is, we need to use that superpower. Just listening to other people and letting them tell us what to do means that we're going to be doing the exact same thing as everyone else and we're never going to get ahead. Just sitting and dogmatically reciting orthodoxy in the face of new information means we're never going to get ahead. We as individuals needed to take in information as much as we can, try to build models for ourselves, and most importantly take in additional new information from the outside world to test our previous predictions, honestly and lies whether our predictions were correct, and modify our models based on that feedback from The real world so that we can make better decisions based on better predictions tomorrow.

It sure sounds like a lot of work, having to go around and put all this effort into building models, and learning more information, and testing our models, and modifying your models, but the thing is if we don't do that then we're not going to be able to make predictions ahead of the pack, and we're not going to be able to get any sort of comparative advantage. Moreover when everyone else is hurting, you could be ok because you successfully predicted the bad thing others who were relying on others to do it for you.

Once you start putting in the work, many things become much more obvious. Then you start to see the establishment saying "nobody could have predicted this!" And you sort of have to shake your head because once you're out of the echo chamber, it's just not true anymore.

If you want to see why m vax mandates are bullshit, check this out.

History will remember this as the time when MILLIONS were killed for no good reason.

WARNING: This will piss you off and don't watch if you know you have a weak stomach

https://rumble.com/v1wac7i-world-premier-died-suddenly.html

New German Study - The Covid-19 MRNA vaccines caused death in otherwise Healthy People

link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-022-02129-5

They say that all vaccines have adverse reactions.

Or at least they said that until covid-19, when, for two years, you weren't allowed to say that the Covid vaccine had any adverse reactions. It was the world's first Perfect Vaccine, like the 2020 election was the world's first Perfect Election and Climate Science is settled.

This is how we do Science now: We have all the politicians of the GAE line up and yell dogma and focus-group-tested attack lines at everyone until they comply with The Science (TM).

cc: @MechaSilvio @scalar

@Kagekokoro @PunishedD I don’t even quite understand what real purpose it serves. I actually fear that it’s the same hyperreal veneer of bullshit so much else is based on. Twitter doesn’t really matter to the war effort, the days of people passing on actionable intel to either side are largely done…

But -

The roasties, boomers, and fags in charge of these organizations continue to believe everyone on earth is on twitter, so they think it matters. In their heads they’re preaching to 2 billion happy, attentive people from every demo, and their support will keep the government invested and supportive as long as they’re contentedly eating up the spiritual goyslop

It just never ends, every day is cringier than the last.

I wouldn’t even be surprised if this one is meant to appeal to the males, after that faggy dance post.

“Yeah, men 18-30 will LOVE this post! It’s such a great meme!”

@houseoftolstoy Russia underestimated that the US was going to make Ukraine their hill to die on and didn't want to destroy the civilian infrastructure.

I think Putin was genuinely surprised that Europe chose to follow the US into a stagflationary depression instead of . . . not.

@Punished_Potatus She doesn’t, in reality. She’s feeling the rush of playing a part that has been fed to her by media.

When NYC worshippers like this move there, they carry with them decades of media indoctrination talking up their new lifestyle - beset by ludicrous cost, violence, fecal contact, perversion, and endangerment - as proof positive that she’s strong, and independent, and brave, and better than those loser women raising 5 kids back home in kansas.

That’s why they love bragging about it like this, even when it’s gussied up like sorrow.

Men love doing things, while women love being things. She loves being a “new yorker”, she misses it, and this was a way to complain about her real issue - pointless existence - while she ‘mourns’ a missing identity she can no longer indulge in

Funny how this isn’t far removed from what I was taught growing up (with mom tsking and mirthfully shaking her head - she never noticed that even as a kid it was pretty obvious that she’d be a rudderless ship without dad driving the family, but I never said that aloud)

Still daunting though. There are few things that women can actually say “intimidate” me in the social sphere, but TBH it is a little spooky to know you have her entire life resting on your shoulders. Women often condemn us as a whole because they pick poor stewards to pair with, they end up condemning the whole structure thinking every guy will be an inept captain of the ship, or worse, abuse the authority he has. From there, they end up bristling at the dynamic, getting their hackles up, and closing off, making future relationships even tougher because they end up assuming a role of a combative second in command instead of an aid.

IDK this is the zip file form of an effortpost, you can uncompress it and get what I’m saying I gotta go. Just had this sitting on the desktop and wanted to talk about it sometime

The screencap mentions the importance of a woman having children in her 20’s. This is absolutely true. Yes women can have children in their 30’s and even 40’s. But only if their body has already been conditioned by previous pregnancies. The first pregnancies are the hardest. The body is being shaped and adapted to bearing a child. It’s not a simple thing. You can’t recapture your youth. The body goes through phases as it ages. People focus so much on their economic state when planning “having a family.” But they completely overlook their physical state. Money is easier to overcome than time.