houseoftolstoy @[email protected]
Looks like this will be my new home. Warning: I (probably) have Asperger's, so my be prepared for my autism to show through.
I don't think I am a right wing extremist, but I am sure anyone with low testosterone might think otherwise.
Joined Sep 2022
houseoftolstoy
boosted
One of the keys to building models is coming out with actionable predictions. Human beings are mastery rationalizers, so it's very easy to come up with a model to justify any course of action, but the important question is: when you take that course of action you've justified, did things play out the way that your model predicts?
Of course, there are Black swan events that no one could predict. There is no model that would have predicted that in 2020 the entire world economy would be shut down due to a pandemic. On the other hand, a model should account for some level of unexpected events, because the world isn't static.
It is no great miracle producing a set of predictions that tomorrow will be largely the same as today. Most of the time such a model will be absolutely correct. The value comes in trying to predict what might change, in figuring out what the next Black swan event could be, or in trying to see with unbiased eyes the White swan event that is sitting right in front of you.
Human beings have the tremendously huge brains we do in part so that we can try to predict the future. That is our superpower as a species. That's why our tool use is on a completely different level than any other species, because we can imagine how we might use some incredibly complicated tool that has no present use. It also allows us to behave in ways that are insanely social. For example, one person building a piece of software that allows different social media websites to connect together. They did that imagining a future that could have thousands of different websites existing and communicating. And today we have the fediverse. It also allows us to plan ahead at a level that no other creature even comes close to. How many other species do you think have 5-year plans? How many other species do you think have 10-year plans? How many species do you think have any conception of 15 or 20 years from now? That's incredible, and it's a superpower that we have as humans.
The thing is, we need to use that superpower. Just listening to other people and letting them tell us what to do means that we're going to be doing the exact same thing as everyone else and we're never going to get ahead. Just sitting and dogmatically reciting orthodoxy in the face of new information means we're never going to get ahead. We as individuals needed to take in information as much as we can, try to build models for ourselves, and most importantly take in additional new information from the outside world to test our previous predictions, honestly and lies whether our predictions were correct, and modify our models based on that feedback from The real world so that we can make better decisions based on better predictions tomorrow.
It sure sounds like a lot of work, having to go around and put all this effort into building models, and learning more information, and testing our models, and modifying your models, but the thing is if we don't do that then we're not going to be able to make predictions ahead of the pack, and we're not going to be able to get any sort of comparative advantage. Moreover when everyone else is hurting, you could be ok because you successfully predicted the bad thing others who were relying on others to do it for you.
Once you start putting in the work, many things become much more obvious. Then you start to see the establishment saying "nobody could have predicted this!" And you sort of have to shake your head because once you're out of the echo chamber, it's just not true anymore.
Of course, there are Black swan events that no one could predict. There is no model that would have predicted that in 2020 the entire world economy would be shut down due to a pandemic. On the other hand, a model should account for some level of unexpected events, because the world isn't static.
It is no great miracle producing a set of predictions that tomorrow will be largely the same as today. Most of the time such a model will be absolutely correct. The value comes in trying to predict what might change, in figuring out what the next Black swan event could be, or in trying to see with unbiased eyes the White swan event that is sitting right in front of you.
Human beings have the tremendously huge brains we do in part so that we can try to predict the future. That is our superpower as a species. That's why our tool use is on a completely different level than any other species, because we can imagine how we might use some incredibly complicated tool that has no present use. It also allows us to behave in ways that are insanely social. For example, one person building a piece of software that allows different social media websites to connect together. They did that imagining a future that could have thousands of different websites existing and communicating. And today we have the fediverse. It also allows us to plan ahead at a level that no other creature even comes close to. How many other species do you think have 5-year plans? How many other species do you think have 10-year plans? How many species do you think have any conception of 15 or 20 years from now? That's incredible, and it's a superpower that we have as humans.
The thing is, we need to use that superpower. Just listening to other people and letting them tell us what to do means that we're going to be doing the exact same thing as everyone else and we're never going to get ahead. Just sitting and dogmatically reciting orthodoxy in the face of new information means we're never going to get ahead. We as individuals needed to take in information as much as we can, try to build models for ourselves, and most importantly take in additional new information from the outside world to test our previous predictions, honestly and lies whether our predictions were correct, and modify our models based on that feedback from The real world so that we can make better decisions based on better predictions tomorrow.
It sure sounds like a lot of work, having to go around and put all this effort into building models, and learning more information, and testing our models, and modifying your models, but the thing is if we don't do that then we're not going to be able to make predictions ahead of the pack, and we're not going to be able to get any sort of comparative advantage. Moreover when everyone else is hurting, you could be ok because you successfully predicted the bad thing others who were relying on others to do it for you.
Once you start putting in the work, many things become much more obvious. Then you start to see the establishment saying "nobody could have predicted this!" And you sort of have to shake your head because once you're out of the echo chamber, it's just not true anymore.
houseoftolstoy
boosted
If you want to see why m vax mandates are bullshit, check this out.
History will remember this as the time when MILLIONS were killed for no good reason.
WARNING: This will piss you off and don't watch if you know you have a weak stomach
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pL8XPZp4-5c
Sometimes one recommendation leads me to another. Much of the video has interesting details about geography, but smack dab in there is some bs propaganda:
"Spain has low birth rate issues because they don't have enough subsidized childcare!"
Yeah, I am sure that all the other European countries that do must have high birthrates, right? Oh wait, they don't? Maybe there is something else that is a factor besides the leftist propaganda of spending more tax dollars.
@37712 Go to electionbettingodds.com. They have links to betting markets, and access may vary from country to country. But you should be able to place bets there.
Just remember, Joe is not a safe bet. Not because a Republican stands a chance with the "election fortifying," but rather that he might not make it that long.
@spectre It was just a huge price increase that was rather recent. It concerns me that the supply itself could be in danger, since high prices are usually an indicator of scarcity. I do not like the idea of scarcity with staples for our food, thank you very much. If this was something like salmon, I would have far less concern.
@Scott1984FP
>Strong Governments
No, the government in most cases is the problem. Every fear of corruption that people have from big business is not only more present in government, but worse there. They have the monopoly on force, as I never had to worry about Walmart breaking down my door for any reason.
>Journalism/Journalists
Most from the establishment/legacy media are either a joke or are just the mouthpiece for the corrupt government that is trying to make us slaves.
houseoftolstoy
boosted
New German Study - The Covid-19 MRNA vaccines caused death in otherwise Healthy People
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-022-02129-5
They say that all vaccines have adverse reactions.
Or at least they said that until covid-19, when, for two years, you weren't allowed to say that the Covid vaccine had any adverse reactions. It was the world's first Perfect Vaccine, like the 2020 election was the world's first Perfect Election and Climate Science is settled.
This is how we do Science now: We have all the politicians of the GAE line up and yell dogma and focus-group-tested attack lines at everyone until they comply with The Science (TM).
cc: @MechaSilvio @scalar
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-022-02129-5
They say that all vaccines have adverse reactions.
Or at least they said that until covid-19, when, for two years, you weren't allowed to say that the Covid vaccine had any adverse reactions. It was the world's first Perfect Vaccine, like the 2020 election was the world's first Perfect Election and Climate Science is settled.
This is how we do Science now: We have all the politicians of the GAE line up and yell dogma and focus-group-tested attack lines at everyone until they comply with The Science (TM).
cc: @MechaSilvio @scalar
houseoftolstoy
boosted
@Kagekokoro @PunishedD I don’t even quite understand what real purpose it serves. I actually fear that it’s the same hyperreal veneer of bullshit so much else is based on. Twitter doesn’t really matter to the war effort, the days of people passing on actionable intel to either side are largely done…
But -
The roasties, boomers, and fags in charge of these organizations continue to believe everyone on earth is on twitter, so they think it matters. In their heads they’re preaching to 2 billion happy, attentive people from every demo, and their support will keep the government invested and supportive as long as they’re contentedly eating up the spiritual goyslop
houseoftolstoy
boosted
It just never ends, every day is cringier than the last.
I wouldn’t even be surprised if this one is meant to appeal to the males, after that faggy dance post.
“Yeah, men 18-30 will LOVE this post! It’s such a great meme!”
We're back!
Also, nobody better be calling for price controls because of this sort of thing. I would rather have expensive eggs than NO eggs. I like not starving, thank you very much.
Fuck me, eggs cost almost 7 dollars for 18 of them. I distinctly remember them being easily half of that.
I can afford them, so that is not the problem. But rather that it is a sign that things are not going well.
@Shadowman311 If he is going to be in the same room as Ben Shapiro, it is going to have to be done ambush style. Because there is no way he is going to agree to meet with Kanye West.
houseoftolstoy
boosted
@houseoftolstoy Russia underestimated that the US was going to make Ukraine their hill to die on and didn't want to destroy the civilian infrastructure.
I think Putin was genuinely surprised that Europe chose to follow the US into a stagflationary depression instead of . . . not.
@Tfmonkey He calls the Russian ruble a "potemkin currency," being propped up by extreme measures. Gee, I wonder if that better describes the dollar.
Oh no, Russia won't be able to import "advanced western technological components." Hold up, doesn't the west themselves import a lot of the raw materials for said components themselves? Why the hell would they need to import it from "the west" when they can just get much of the raw materials from their own borders or from non-western trade?
@Tfmonkey In all seriousness, I can find multiple problems. First, the guy criticizes Russia for not using an air assault for their initial attack. Gee, I wonder if they had any motives for not doing this, such as purposefully not wanting to flatten everything, especially the areas they wanted to reclaim.
And he even goes into "muh sanction are crippling the Russian economy," as if the NATO countries themselves are not having major economic problems.
@Tfmonkey You said Russia is kicking the shit out of Ukraine. Well, my dear monkey, you have been DEBOONKED! This video from a large channel that totally is not being favored by the algorithms says Russia is failing in Ukraine!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_Jizt8AAa4
Ha, I bet you feel foolish now, considering that it has an extensive list of sources for evidence:
"All videos are based on publicly available information unless otherwise noted."
I shit you not, that is what is said in the description.
@Tfmonkey I just thought of a scenario from my own life that would fit both of the categories of highly important/critical work that is low skilled. That being a summer job I did vacuum broom operating at a flour mill. It is absolutely critical to the operations of the flour mill (given how flour dust buildup can mean the whole facility exploding with just a spark), but it is a job that you can replace with nearly anyone, and therefore it is not a job that pays luxury wages.
Looks like this will be my new home. Warning: I (probably) have Asperger's, so my be prepared for my autism to show through.
I don't think I am a right wing extremist, but I am sure anyone with low testosterone might think otherwise.
Joined Sep 2022
